Self-Publishing 4.0

The Next Era of Story and Commerce

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Why the next era of publishing is not what you think…

Selling direct to readers has been the rage in the indie author community for the last few years. Except, for most authors, their riches still come from Amazon.

For a while, I used to think selling direct to readers through platforms like Shopify was the future of publishing.

The hard truth? Selling direct is not enough.

The dropshipping era of publishing is dying. Readers First Publishing is upon us.

Welcome to the era of Self-Publishing 4.0. The rules of the game are evolving. But the opportunity is bigger than ever.

Self-Publishing 4.0 still involves authors selling directly to readers. But crucially, it centers around authors building robust brands that put their Readers First through incredible fan experiences.

There are billions to be made for authors here. And I want to show you how to unlock it.

But first, we have to explore what defined the previous eras of modern self-publishing 👇

The 4 Eras of Modern Self-Publishing

Note: following is my model of self-publishing. We can call it “Michael’s Messy Model”. It’s inherently imperfect (like any model) but I hope leads to some useful insights for you. Likewise, at any one time in publishing, there are thousands of authors bucking the trends of the era and doing so successfully.

I’d love to hear your feedback in the comments. You can dunk on me! Just be respectful of each other.

First, self-publishing has existed for tens of thousands of years (was cave art not the first permissionless form of humans sharing stories with other humans?).

However, these eras cover “modern” self-publishing. Or everything after the original Kindle device was released by Amazon.

Self-Publishing broadly is defined as anyone publishing any piece of content without needing permission. This means you take on the full expense of publishing your content but also have all of the upside and rights to your content.

Publishing always has three forces dictating how the industry functions:

• Middlemen (they form the infrastructure of publishing but often take “tolls” aka fees")

• Sales Model (what are readers buying and how is it being sold)

• Business Model (how is profit generated)

A new era of publishing can be kicked off with a shift in any of these 3 core forces. What causes these shifts are normally a combination of multiple factors. I call these the mega-trends. These are things happening beneath the surface of publishing and changing reader behavior that are too big to ignore!

Self-Publishing 1.0: The Wild West Era (2007 - 2016)

This era was defined by the rise of modern self-publishing with the advent of the Kindle popularizing a “new” category for online reading and book discovery.

• Middlemen: eBook retailers like Amazon, Kobo, Apple Books, etc. They controlled discovery, typically through best-seller charts and organic algorithmic recommendations.

• Sales Model: Buying eBooks, audiobooks, and even print books through Print-on-Demand ala carte. Retailers took a cut of all sales. Typically 30%.

• Business Model: authors made money by selling books on retailers and found customers within retailers.

• What Changed: the middlemen shifted from big box bookstores to big retailers online (of course both indie and big box bookstores persisted, as changes in the market oftentimes don’t mean erasing the existing paradigm but a new era creating new value and new opportunity).

• Mega Trends: people trusted retailers (and particularly Amazon) to enter their payment information online, the rise of print-on-demand technologies in the late 1990s to 2000s, the explosion in sales of the Kindle (it’s likely Amazon has sold 100 million+ of these devices and they reported Q4 of 2024 was their best quarter for Kindle Sales in a decade. Hold my beer, I’ll be coming back to this).

Self-Publishing 2.0: The Kindle Unlimited Gold Rush Era (2016 - 2022)

This era was defined by the unwavering dominance of Amazon and the meteoric rise of Kindle Unlimited and Audible which required exclusivity to Amazon. This brought about great challenges and great opportunities.

• Middlemen: The main one was Amazon. Of course, there were and still are many other powerful players in publishing. But no one and nothing compared to the near-monopoly power of Amazon. Facebook was another extremely powerful middleman, increasingly becoming a place where readers discovered books (notably through ads).

• Sales Model: Millions of readers subscribed to Kindle Unlimited to read unlimited enrolled stories, instead of paying by book. Readers also subscribed to Audible to get books on a per credit basis, authors getting paid the same per audiobook across the board. Authors got paid per page read in Kindle Unlimited (typically ~$0.004 per page read). These programs still have a ton of power and authors in KU alone are set to make $600 million+ this year.

• Business Model: In addition to retailer sales fees, most authors also began paying heavily for advertising costs on Meta (Facebook & Instagram) and Amazon Ads. Discovery shifted from organic to paid as more books flooded the market, increasing the power that the two powerful publishing networks (Facebook and Amazon) had over authors.

• What Changed: the sales model shifted from alacarte sales of books to all-you-can-read subscriptions. The business model changed with the introduction of advertising.

• Mega-trends: the rise of mobile reading and discovery of books, the rise of digital advertising platforms, the rise of audiobooks, and the commodification of stories with every book “costing” the same (as you can see so many of these trends fuel each other).

I started self-publishing my science fiction books in 2017. This was the first era I lived through as an indie author. I loved it. But as the futurist I am, around 2020 I started to see the tide shifting. Enter our next era…

Self-Publishing 3.0: The Direct to Reader Era (2022 - 2025)

This era was defined by authors selling books to readers from their own websites, the point of sale moving from retailers to authors’ individual online bookstores. Despite the rise of direct sales, Amazon has maintained (and by many metrics even strengthed) its dominance in the industry.

• Middlemen: “none”. I use quotes because all the old middlemen still exist (i.e. Facebook and Amazon) and have just as much power. However, the key difference is once a reader purchases from an author’s site, in theory, the author can continue to sell to them directly, without any middleman taking fees or charging for discovery.

• Sales Model: all-you-can-read subscriptions remained as well as ala-carte book sales, but new models emerged such as crowdfunding and memberships which helped contribute to the self-publishing economy.

  • One thing to note is that by my estimates fiction authors make around $50 million a year between subscriptions and crowdfunding (it may be 10 million or more higher, but $50 million is a great ballpark estimate).

  • This is a lot of money, but when you add up the rest of publishing and what indie authors make, these new sales models contribute under 5% of indie author revenue (with KU alone at $600 million+ it’s safe to say indie authors make at least a billion dollars per year, and it’s likely much more than that).

• Business Model: the business model largely remained the same with slightly different pricing tactics (generally authors have moved to selling their books at higher prices to combat increased ad costs and KU page read deflation… I’ll share another article on that at a later point).

• What Changed: the popularity of software like Shopify and Payhip enabled more and more authors to sell direct to readers without middlemen. With this said, retailers still generate massive amounts of revenue for authors (remember how I mentioned that new eras don’t always mean throwing away the old but adding new opportunity).

• Mega Trends: the rise of short-form video as a discovery medium (TikTok, Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts)

I had a crazy close-up perspective of this era. I started my first technology company for authors. Traveled the world speaking at author conferences. The education I helped develop led to authors making over $1 million annually in memberships. And I even ended this era off working for MrBeast. All while attending college at Harvard. I wasn’t busy at all 😅.

It was a lot of fun, but it all taught me about what’s next in publishing.

And it’s going to be the best era yet.

Self-Publishing 4.0: Readers First Publishing Era (2025 and Beyond)

This era is defined by authors building brands that go Beyond the Book to sell their readers products, experiences, and services that more deeply impact their lives and immerse them in your stories.

I sometimes refer to Self-Publishing 3.0 as the dropshipping era because it’s akin to the dropshipping era of ecommerce. During this period, people ran Facebook Ads and slung up ecommerce stores to sell random products from China. There was nothing too unique about the products, no moat, and ultimately it became very challenging to build a sustainable business.

If you aren’t going to offer a different or better experience than a retailer, then why buy from your website?

Indie bookstores have figured this out. They’ve leaned into curation, community events, and even niched down to specific genres such as romance bookstores appealing to Taylor Swift’s fandom (Ex: Sweeter Than Fiction). Now, membership in the American Booksellers Association (a rough proxy for the number of independent bookstores nation wide) is up double since 2016. Freaking awesome.

And something else wild is happening. People are buying more online than ever. And I don’t mean just spending more. I mean that a higher proportion of all retail is happening online than ever (we are about to pass what it was even during peak COVID… nuts!).

Here’s the data to back this up.

Meanwhile, new technologies (*cough* artificial intelligence) are making the cost of creating things go lower and lower. This counts videos, translations, video games, software, and yes, books too.

Whatever your thoughts are on AI, it’s impossible to ignore what this trend is doing to the industry. It’s making it simultaneously easier to write books, but harder to sell them as more books flood subgenres for attention.

Data and chart from this article in Publisher’s Weekly. Note that this is BEFORE we had any tools to make writing books faster. The one-time increase in 2019 was due to a large back order from a self-publishing platform.

Sound kind of like the dropshipping era of e-commerce, even with the murky ethical implications and all?

So in a world where anyone can make the widget for reader dopamine (we used to have product factories, now we have content factories), readers are flooded with endless options, and the platforms have more power than ever, what the heck do we do as authors just trying to make a living in the madness?

There’s good news. E-commerce figured it out.

And as authors, we can too. After all, we are in the e-commerce industry too.

Let’s discuss the state of Self-Publishing 4.0.

• Middlemen: It’s Amazon and Facebook, *still*, with a slew of other middlemen taking the slices of leftovers. TikTok Shop, YouTube, reading creators and discount newsletter sites… all of them have their place here. Likewise, so does selling direct. But crucially, you are still likely interacting with one of the above middlemen to get readers to your site.

• Sales Model: KU is still ultra-powerful and so is Audible. At the same time, authors are making more money than ever from ala carte sales, serials with pay-by-chapter models and more. The key difference is WHAT we are selling.

• Business Model: in addition to selling books, now authors are able to sell community experiences, different media formats (think serialized videos, story letters, cards, etc.), and products and services that help their readers at a deeper level (think cosmetic brands, specialty products, and anything else that a customer would find in a store). Media used to be THE business model. Now media is the “advertising” for other products and services we can share with our readers. In short, media is an okay business, but it’s great marketing.

• What Changed: our stories are now the entryway into gaining audience from the middlemen and bringing them into our store where we can sell them more products and experiences. The key is putting our Readers First so that we can retain them within our ecosystem and build empires off platforms.

• Mega Trends:

  • Technology has made it cheaper, faster, and easier to create nearly every product. There’s immense opportunity here and I’m not simply talking about AI. New manufacturing processes have made creating nearly every product easier. Advances in direct sales make testing and launching products faster than ever.

  • The rise of Creator Street. As more and more of retail moves online, we are seeing the rise of boutique brands online that serve niche audiences. Authors are already doing this. Look at JJ Knight’s Pickleverse. Think of all the different ways she can make money from her audience once she has them.

  • The bar for good marketing has never been higher. The internet is loud and cutting through the noise requires creativity and innovation. So many people know the tried and true internet marketing tactics. The funnels, the CTAs, all of that is great. But it’s not enough to get people to care.

  • URL to IRL. Increasingly, people are moving to events and experiences that help them connect in real life, off-screen. Screen-free products are trending (ironically on screens 😂). Interest in tabletop games, card games, story letters, print books, and other physical products has exploded (just read this about the resurrection of the vinyl industry).

  • Make the internet social again. Consumer social is going through a massive phase shift now. New apps are taking off with hundreds of thousands of users in weeks for the first time in a long time. People are desperate for connection and are turning to smaller online spaces, creators, and, yes, even AI to get it. More Americans face loneliness than ever. Now, the people are fighting back. Tech tore us apart. It’s time for it to bring us back together. Read the Loneliness Economy for more on this. It’s cannon for me.

  • Consumers trust creators more than traditional brands. Advertisers are spending ten billion+ each year sponsoring creator content. Why not just create the products yourself and profit? More and more creators are getting into this, and it’s becoming the majority of the business of top creators. Starting a Creator-Led Brand isn’t for everyone, but so much of the new opportunities in publishing are here. And remember, all authors are creators.

  • The middlemen aren’t leaving, our relationship to them is just changing. Amazon has more power over the book market than ever. My hot take? I don’t see that changing in a massive way in Self-Publishing 4.0. So much (and maybe even almost all) of our discovery will continue to come from these big middlemen. As I stated above, Amazon sold more Kindle devices in Q4 of 2024 than they have in over a decade. A lot of new readers are coming into the ecosystem and this is a beautiful thing. The only difference is that more and more of an author’s business will be taking place off the middlemen and in turn your money will be made from things beyond books too. However, the vast majority of our discovery will still remain on the middlemen (although I do have a crazy long-term plan to help change that… but just wait a couple of years, it’s top-secret). This is already happening with creators on YouTube, with top YouTubers making majority of their revenue off platform.

Now… with this wave of change and new trends, what does this mean for you?

How to Win in Self-Publishing 4.0

Note: there are still plenty of opportunities in self-publishing 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0. Don’t think you have to do this or that this is the only way to make it as an author. Honestly, I’m just happy if you feel excited and are doing something that allows you to use your author superpowers 💙.

• Don’t be afraid to go niche. Stand for something, or you risk standing for nothing. Imagine if my newsletter was just another marketing newsletter for authors? Would you care? My whole brand is helping usher in Readers First Publishing and helping authors go Beyond the Book. I’m now finally sharing with you what it really is. It’s what makes my brand special (aka my positioning).

  • Note: You can compete in a niche that already exists. However, you must be able to do BETTER than anyone else at the top of the niche already (for me, my unique expertise and passion happened to lend itself best to me carving out a “new category”. Don’t be afraid to do this, if find yourself in similar shoes).

• Use and abuse the platforms. Think of it as if you are stealing gold from the cavern of a dragon. The dragon may rule the village, but if you don’t steal some gold at some point, you will always have to live in fear of what the dragon will do next. Use the platforms to grow your audience. Use your store to build a brand beyond the book that serves your readers first.

• Go Beyond the Book. Whether it be community experiences, short-form videos, story letters and emerging story formats, unique merch, food and drink brands, and other fan engagement products – there is a massive world of opportunity in the experiences you can create for your audience. Remember, your job as an author is NOT to write books. It’s to entertain and help your readers. This changes everything.

• Make Marketing Fun Again. A sister concept of going Beyond the Book is all about *how* we share our books and other experiences with readers. Marketing is a service. How will your marketing entertain, delight, and surprise readers in and of itself? Gone are the lazy days or boring headlines, same old stock photos, and the same CTAs. Sure these can work. But the average book never sells more than 100 copies. Why be average? BE FUN!

• From attention to retention. Retailers are designed to commoditize our stories and make it super easy for readers to leave an author and never come back. Creating experiences that keep readers satisfied, loyal, and returning to you and your stories is key. And the core of this is…

• Put your Readers First. And this is what it all comes back to, what this entire newsletter is about, and the thing that makes me SO unbelievably excited. I’m on a mission to bring Power to Storytellers. The more power I can give you all through education, technology, and community, the greater you will be able to do for hundreds of millions of readers in the world. Go above and beyond in your business, think at a deep level how your story, your marketing copy, and the experiences you create can resonate with them. The future of the world is in the hands of storytellers. Use your powers wisely. Readers need you now more than ever.

Final Thought: Amazon used and abused us to build a trillion-dollar empire by selling our readers other products. Facebook used and abused us to build a trillion-dollar empire by selling our data to advertisers and showing our readers content from random strangers online (I understand I may be a random stranger to you, which in that case hello new friend 👋).

It’s time we use and abuse them.

We can use their networks to build our own. Instead of readers going to Amazon to buy products to fill their homes, they will come to you. Instead of readers going to Facebook to doomscroll, they will go to you to get connection and other experiences.

It’s the beginning of our revolution. The Readers First Revolution.

I hope you join us. We have some big tech billionaires to f*ck up (you might even write books where that happens lol), and some incredible times ahead to give our readers.

And that’s it for this one. If you want to learn more about going Beyond the Book, I’m hosting a cohort-based accelerator in June and would love to have you there [learn more here, I’m giving people on the waitlist early access].

Thank you so much for reading! I’d really appreciate it if you shared this article with author friends.

And if you aren’t subscribed to Author Sidekick yet, you should! I heard a rumor that this newsletter is really awesome (I also started this rumor 🫠). Whether you join for free or as a paid member (you get monthly workshops from me and access to backlist articles), I am very grateful for you ☺️.

I’ll see you all tomorrow with another episode of Beyond the Book where we will be exploring some insanely innovative ways authors have gone Beyond the Book.

In the meantime, don’t forget…

Together we are boundless,

Michael Evans

The Author Sidekick

P.S. One of my dream articles has been writing a 10 Trends for Publishing in 2025. Would you be interested in that?

P.P.S. Help us unlock our next stretch goal for the Author Marketing Superpowers Deck. It’s an illustrated map of Authoropolis all about helping you map out what it looks like for YOU to put your Readers First.